{"id":63577,"date":"2023-05-30T17:49:15","date_gmt":"2023-05-30T07:49:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=63577"},"modified":"2023-05-30T17:49:15","modified_gmt":"2023-05-30T07:49:15","slug":"ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-30-may-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ic.com\/blog\/ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-30-may-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 30 May 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 30 May 2023<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What happened in the Asia session?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The NZD faced downward pressure due to a 2.6% decrease in Building Consents m\/m, deviating from a forecasted 6.6% rise, suggesting an economic slowdown.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The GBP fell despite the BRC Shop Price Index y\/y increasing by 9.0%, surpassing the previous 8.8%, indicating higher inflation and potential economic health.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The JPY also weakened despite seeing the Unemployment Rate fell to 2.6% against a forecasted 2.7% and a previous rate of 2.8%, suggesting an improving labour market.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Similarly, AUD weakened against the USD due to a sharp 8.1% drop in Building Approvals m\/m, notably lower than a forecasted 2.3% rise and the previous month&#8217;s decline of -1.0%, indicating potential economic contraction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What does it mean for the Europe &amp; US Sessions?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The DXY is likely to advance higher towards the round-figure resistance of 105.00. However, a dip in the US CB Consumer Confidence data could motivate profit-taking to 104.00 before 103.55.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CB Consumer Confidence data&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The upcoming release of CB Consumer Confidence data, with a previous reading of 101.3 and a forecasted reading of 99.1, is expected to impact the USD. A decline in consumer confidence may weaken the greenback as it suggests reduced spending and slower economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 5 to 5-1\/4 per cent. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses may weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The committee is committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The committee will adjust monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of goals<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting is on 14 June 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Weak bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A decline in US consumer confidence may weaken the greenback, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold. Consequently, the demand for gold could increase, potentially driving its price upward.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Weak bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What can we expect from AUD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The upcoming data release for Building Approvals m\/m in Australia is forecasted to show a 2.3% increase compared to the previous month&#8217;s decline of -0.1%. If the actual data meets or exceeds this forecast, it could positively impact the AUD, signalling growth in the construction sector and attracting foreign investors.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Official Cash Rate was increased by 25 basis points to 3.85%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation in Australia has passed its peak but remains high at 7%, and it may take some time to return to the target range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>GDP is forecast to increase by 1.25% this year and around 2% over the year to mid-2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 6 June 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Weak bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What can we expect from NZD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Previously, the NZ Building Consents m\/m data showed a substantial growth of 7.0%, signalling confidence in the construction sector. A continued growth trend would strengthen the NZD, while a downturn could lead to its depreciation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Monetary Policy Committee has raised the OCR from 5.25% to 5.50%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee believes that interest rates at a restrictive level for some time will bring inflation back within the target range while supporting maximum sustainable employment<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee voted by a majority of five to two to increase the OCR by 25 basis points to 5.50%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Interest rates must remain restrictive to ensure inflation returns to the target range while supporting maximum sustainable employment<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting is on 12 July 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What can we expect from JPY today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The upcoming release of Japan&#8217;s Unemployment Rate data is forecasted to decrease from 2.8% to 2.7%. A lower unemployment rate signifies a healthier economy, potentially leading to increased demand for the JPY. This could increase its value against other currencies, as investors view low unemployment rates as a sign of stability and growth.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The bank will continue with QQE with Yield Curve Control to achieve the price stability target of 2%&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Japan&#8217;s economy is expected to recover gradually<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bank will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting is on 15 June 2023&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Weak bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Euro (EUR)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What can we expect from EUR today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The upcoming release of the Spanish Flash CPI y\/y data is expected to decrease from 4.1% to 3.6%. This could affect the ECB&#8217;s previously hawkish tone regarding interest rate hikes as inflation in the Eurozone shows signs of easing. A lower-than-expected Spanish CPI reading may lead to re-evaluating the ECB&#8217;s rate hike path, potentially causing a delay or modification of planned interest rate increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The ECB has decided to raise the three key interest rates by 25 basis points as the inflation outlook continues to be too high for too long.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The ECB will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Renewed financial market tensions and Russia&#8217;s war against Ukraine remain significant economic downside risks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The continued resilience of the labour market could lead to higher growth than anticipated.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 15 June 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What can we expect from CHF today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The upcoming release of Switzerland\u2019s GDP data, with a forecasted growth of 0.1% compared to the previous quarter&#8217;s gain of 0.0%, is expected to have a modest impact on the currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Raised policy rate to 1.5% to counter inflationary pressure and ensure price stability. The SNB may need to raise the policy rate further in the future<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The SNB is providing liquidity assistance to Credit Suisse, and the crisis has been halted<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The new inflation forecast assumes a policy rate of 1.5% and puts average annual inflation at 2.6% for 2023 and 2.0% for 2024 and 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Mortgage and real estate market vulnerabilities persist<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 22 June 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mixed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Pound (GBP)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What can we expect from GBP today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The British Retail Consortium&#8217;s Shop Price Index, a vital economic indicator, recorded an 8.8% increase year-over-year in its previous release. The upcoming data release is crucial; a higher figure suggests growing UK inflation, potentially strengthening the GBP if the Bank of England reacts with interest rate hikes. Conversely, a lower rate could weaken the GBP due to diminished pressure on the bank to raise interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The MPC of the BoE voted 7-2 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The updated projections show that CPI inflation is expected to decline slightly above 1% at the two and three-year horizons, below the 2% target.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>CPI increased unexpectedly but is expected to fall sharply over the rest of the year due to lower energy prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 22 June 2023&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Mixed<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What can we expect from CAD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The upcoming release of the Canadian Current Account data, with a decrease from -10.6B to -9.9B, suggests a widening deficit, which could put downward pressure on the CAD. It may be perceived as a sign of weaker economic fundamentals, potentially leading to a depreciation of the CAD against other major currencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bank of Canada holds its target for the overnight rate at 4.5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Labour markets remain tight with persistent price pressures, especially for services<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic growth in Q1 looks to be stronger than projected; to be weak through the remainder of this year before strengthening gradually next year<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Prepared to increase the policy rate further to return inflation to the 2% target.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next meeting on 7 June 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Weak bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No major news events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil prices could experience another volatile trading session on Tuesday, with the focus still on a tentative U.S. debt ceiling deal that could prevent a default by the world&#8217;s top oil consumer. Additionally, sellers remain backed by concerns over potential Federal Reserve interest rate hikes that might curb energy demand.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Next 24 Hours Bias<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Weak bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 30 May 2023 What happened [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":62297,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215,339],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-63577","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis","category-recent-posts"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" 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