{"id":91557,"date":"2026-11-03T20:26:42","date_gmt":"2026-11-03T09:26:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ic.com\/blog\/?p=91557"},"modified":"2026-11-03T20:26:42","modified_gmt":"2026-11-03T09:26:42","slug":"ic-europe-fundamental-forecast-03-november-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ic.com\/blog\/ic-europe-fundamental-forecast-03-november-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"IC &#8211; Europe Fundamental Forecast | 03 November 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>IC &#8211; Europe Fundamental Forecast | 03 November 2026<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What happened in the Asia session?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Asian markets are experiencing mixed sentiment, with technology stocks under pressure as investors become increasingly cautious about large AI investments and prepare for the US midterm elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil remains under pressure following its sharp decline on renewed hopes of US-Iran diplomatic negotiations. This could provide some relief to oil-importing economies and currencies, although geopolitical risks remain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Australian dollar is particularly important today because of the RBA&#8217;s expected interest-rate increase to 4.85%.<br \/><br \/><strong>What does it mean for the European &amp; US sessions?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Global markets are entering Tuesday with several important developments influencing investor sentiment. The U.S. midterm elections are creating uncertainty, while technology-sector weakness continues to weigh on equity markets. Oil prices have fallen sharply following renewed hopes of diplomatic discussions between the United States and Iran, easing some inflation concerns and providing temporary relief to financial markets.<br \/><br \/><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">JOLTS Job Openings (3:00 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>Congressional Elections (All Day)<br \/><br \/><strong>What can we expect from the DXY today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The US dollar is experiencing mixed trading conditions as markets balance declining Treasury yields against renewed geopolitical and political uncertainty. The currency recently dropped to a one-month low following a sharp decline in oil prices and improving hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran. However, renewed military tensions have helped restore some demand for the dollar.<br \/><br \/><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75%\u20134.00% at its October 27\u201328 meeting. The decision was approved by a 10\u20132 vote, following September\u2019s 25-basis-point rate hike. Two members preferred another 25-basis-point increase.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The labor market remains relatively stable. The Fed noted that job gains have kept pace with workforce growth and that the unemployment rate has changed little. Employment conditions remain an important factor in future policy decisions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation remains above the Fed\u2019s 2% target. Policymakers want more economic data to assess whether inflation is moving sustainably towards the target. Persistent inflation could increase the possibility of further rate hikes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Fed upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy from a solid pace of growth to a strong pace. Domestic spending remains resilient, productivity growth is strong, and business investment remains robust. However, geopolitical developments continue to create uncertainty.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Fed has kept the door open to further rate hikes if inflation remains elevated. The latest decision suggests policymakers want more evidence before making their next move. Markets are watching closely for signals about a possible rate increase in December.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Chair Kevin Warsh continues to emphasize the importance of bringing inflation back to the 2% target. The October decision reflects a cautious approach, with the Fed waiting for more information before adjusting interest rates again.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Fed\u2019s decision could influence the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, gold, and other financial markets. Expectations of higher interest rates may support the dollar and pressure gold, while signs of easing inflation could weaken the dollar and support gold prices. Market reactions will depend on incoming economic data and expectations for future policy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is scheduled for 8 to 9 December 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>JOLTS Job Openings (3:00 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Congressional Elections (All Day)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What can we expect from the Gold today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Gold is attempting to recover after suffering a significant sell-off that pushed prices to their lowest levels in approximately one year. The latest rebound has been supported by falling oil prices, easing inflation concerns, and a weaker US dollar. However, the Federal Reserve&#8217;s hawkish interest-rate outlook remains a major obstacle to a sustained recovery. Traders will also be watching today&#8217;s US midterm elections and the upcoming JOLTS employment report for further direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/strong> <strong><br \/><\/strong>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Euro (EUR)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What can we expect from the EUR toda<\/strong>y?<br \/><br \/>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/EURUSD\/?exchange=ICMARKETS\">euro<\/a> enters Tuesday with a cautiously bullish fundamental outlook. Stronger-than-expected Eurozone GDP growth and resilient manufacturing activity are providing support, while increasingly hawkish ECB comments are strengthening expectations of another interest-rate increase in December.<br \/><br \/><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>At its 29 October meeting, the ECB kept all three key interest rates unchanged. The deposit facility rate remains at 2.50%, the main refinancing operations rate at 2.65%, and the marginal lending facility rate at 2.90%. The ECB maintained its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, with no commitment to future rate changes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation remains a major concern. Euro-area annual inflation rose to 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August. Higher energy prices were the main contributor, with energy inflation reaching 18.8%. This keeps inflation well above the ECB&#8217;s 2% target.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic growth remains relatively modest. The ECB&#8217;s September projections expect GDP growth of 0.9% in 2026, 1.4% in 2027, and 1.5% in 2028. Although the economy has shown resilience, higher energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty continue to threaten the outlook.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic confidence weakened in October. The Euro-area Economic Sentiment Indicator declined by 0.6 points to 96.9, marking its second consecutive monthly decline. Consumer confidence also weakened, suggesting continued pressure on household spending and business activity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Energy prices remain a major risk to the inflation outlook. The ECB warned that prolonged increases in oil and natural gas prices could push inflation higher while weakening economic growth. The bank is also monitoring whether higher energy costs begin spreading into wages and broader consumer prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The ECB&#8217;s balance-sheet reduction continues. The APP and PEPP portfolios are gradually declining as the central bank no longer reinvests principal payments from maturing bonds. This process represents continued quantitative tightening and a gradual withdrawal of monetary support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The main focus heading into November is whether persistent inflation will require further interest rate increases. The ECB remains cautious as rising energy costs create inflation risks, while weaker economic confidence and tighter financing conditions could weigh on growth. Upcoming inflation and economic activity data will be important in determining the bank&#8217;s next policy decision.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u200bThe next meeting is on 16-17 December 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Medium Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CPI m\/m (7:30 am GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What can we expect from the CHF today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><br \/>The Swiss franc is showing positive momentum heading into Tuesday&#8217;s trading session. Stronger-than-expected Swiss manufacturing activity, combined with weakness in the US dollar and continued safe-haven demand, is providing support for the currency. However, weaker retail sales and the SNB&#8217;s accommodative monetary policy remain potential obstacles to further appreciation.<br \/><br \/><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>At its 24 September meeting, the SNB kept the policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, citing appropriate monetary conditions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Swiss inflation increased from 0.6% in May to 0.8% in August, mainly due to higher energy prices. The SNB expects inflation to rise somewhat in Q4 before easing during 2027.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The SNB now projects average inflation of 0.7% in 2026, 0.8% in 2027, and 0.8% in 2028, assuming the policy rate remains at 0%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The SNB remains willing to intervene in the foreign-exchange market if necessary to maintain appropriate monetary conditions, particularly if exchange-rate movements become problematic.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The SNB expects Swiss growth to remain moderate, forecasting 1.5\u20132% growth in 2026 and around 1.5% in 2027.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The main risks remain Middle East tensions, elevated energy prices, global growth, and trade-policy uncertainty. Higher energy prices could increase inflation while weakening economic growth.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br \/>The next meeting is on 10 December 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Pound (GBP)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What can we expect from the GBP today?<br \/><br \/><\/strong>The British <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/GBPUSD\/?exchange=ICMARKETS\">pound<\/a> is experiencing some short-term weakness as traders prepare for Thursday&#8217;s Bank of England interest rate decision. Markets widely expect an increase from 3.75% to 4.00%, supported by persistent inflation and improving manufacturing activity. These developments are generally positive for sterling because higher interest rates can attract investment into the currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Interest-rate decision: The BoE held the Bank Rate at 3.75% at its 17 September 2026 meeting. The MPC voted 6\u20133, with three members supporting a 25-basis-point increase to 4.00%. The decision reflects a cautious approach as policymakers balance inflation risks against subdued economic activity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>UK CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in August, up from 2.9% in July, remaining above the BoE\u2019s 2% target. Core CPI remained at 2.6%, while services inflation was 3.4%, indicating that underlying price pressures are still present.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The ongoing Middle East conflict has contributed to higher and more volatile energy prices. The BoE expects inflation to rise further over the coming quarters, although the eventual impact will depend on how long energy prices remain elevated.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The UK economy remains subdued, while weaker demand and a cooling labor market create challenges for the MPC. Policymakers must balance the risk of persistent inflation against the possibility of further weakening economic activity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Wage growth and services inflation remain important areas of focus. Although core inflation has been relatively stable, the rise in headline inflation means the MPC is likely to remain cautious about easing policy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The BoE is reviewing the pace and structure of its balance-sheet reduction. Its latest plans include slowing the pace of gilt sales, reflecting concerns around market conditions and the impact of quantitative tightening.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The BoE\u2019s next decisions will remain data-dependent, with inflation, energy prices, wage growth, and economic activity determining whether rates remain unchanged or increase.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 5 November 2026.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Medium Bullish<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>BOC Gov Macklem Speaks (4:00 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What can we expect from the CAD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Canadian dollar is maintaining a relatively strong position against the U.S. dollar, supported by the Bank of Canada&#8217;s recent interest-rate increase, broad U.S. dollar weakness, and optimism surrounding potential improvements in U.S.\u2013Canada trade relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil prices are another important factor. WTI crude is recovering towards $95.80 after a sharp decline, providing some support to the commodity-linked Canadian dollar.<br \/><br \/>Central Bank Notes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>On 28 October 2026, the Bank of Canada raised its overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, ending its extended period of holding rates steady. The bank cited persistent inflation risks and stronger economic activity. Further rate increases remain possible.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Canada&#8217;s economy grew by an annualized 3.3% in Q2 2026, with growth estimated at around 2% in Q3. However, new US tariffs and trade uncertainty are expected to slow economic activity in Q4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Unemployment has remained around 6.5%, indicating continued spare capacity in the labor market. Although employment conditions have stabilized, uncertainty over trade and economic growth remains a concern.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Canada&#8217;s annual inflation rate rose to 3.1% in September, up from 3.0% in August. Higher gasoline prices were the main driver, while inflation excluding gasoline remained at 2.2% and core inflation measures stayed close to 2%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Persistently high global oil prices and Middle East tensions continue to increase fuel and transportation costs. The bank warned that these pressures could spread to other goods and services, keeping inflation elevated for longer.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Renewed US tariffs and uncertainty over trade relations remain significant risks to Canada&#8217;s economic outlook. These pressures could weaken exports, delay business investment, and slow growth, while also increasing business costs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The BoC has raised its policy rate to 2.50% to limit the risk of persistent inflation. The bank may raise rates further if price pressures continue, but future decisions will depend on economic data, energy prices, and trade developments.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 9 December 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Oil<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><em><br \/><\/em><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)<br \/><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>What can we expect from the Oil today?<\/strong><br \/><br \/>Oil prices remain highly volatile as traders balance geopolitical risks against hopes of a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran. On Monday, crude prices dropped sharply following optimism about negotiations, but reports of a US strike on Iran&#8217;s Qeshm Island helped prices recover during Tuesday&#8217;s Asian session. Brent was trading around $105 per barrel, while WTI was around $97 in early Asian trading. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is keeping production unchanged for December, and relatively low global inventories continue to provide support for prices.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Risk Warning:<\/strong>&nbsp;Trading in securities involves significant risk. Prices may fluctuate and securities can become entirely valueless. You may incur losses that exceed your potential profits, and in some cases, losses may exceed the amount you have deposited. Securities, futures, options, and contracts for differences are complex financial instruments and are not suitable for all investors. Engaging in such transactions requires a sound understanding of the associated risks. Please read and ensure you fully understand our&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/cdn.ic.com\/uploads\/FSA\/Risk_Disclosure_Notice_FSA.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Risk Disclosure<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our leverage is dynamic and may change at any time. Such changes may affect your positions and margin requirements. You are responsible for monitoring your positions and maintaining sufficient margin at all times.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IC &#8211; Europe Fundamental Forecast | 03 November 2026 What happened [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":84955,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215,339],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-91557","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis","category-recent-posts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91557","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91557"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91557\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":91585,"href":"https:\/\/www.ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91557\/revisions\/91585"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84955"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91557"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91557"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ic.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91557"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}