Markets endured another lively week last week, with global bond yields surging again and volatility remaining elevated as geopolitical concerns continued to hit sentiment, whilst a big US data week saw expectations of a Fed hike drop dramatically as both inflation and jobs updates came in lower than anticipated.
The macroeconomic calendar is much quieter this week, with very little scheduled to move the dial for international markets. However, there are still a couple of updates that will be closely monitored in the current environment. Given the big shift we’ve seen in Fed expectations, the minutes of the last meeting will be examined very closely, as will a scheduled speech from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda for Yen traders, given recent moves in the currency.
Geopolitical updates are expected to keep coming thick and fast in the days ahead, and they look likely to be the main source of further volatility for investors, with any developments in the Middle East likely to see more moves in Oil that should reverberate to other markets.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
It is once again a quiet calendar day to start the week on Monday, with very little on the calendar to move markets aside from the ISM Services PMI data in the New York session. The Asian session should see reduced volatility, with both Australian and Chinese markets closed.
There are a couple of key updates due out on Tuesday that could see moves in their respective markets. A scheduled speech from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will be very closely monitored towards the end of the Asian session, given recent moves in the Yen and talk from Japanese officials with regard to intervention. Then, it’s a long wait until the New York session, where the Ivey PMI data could add some volatility to Canadian markets.
It is a quiet first two sessions to the day on Wednesday; however, the US session does have some events scheduled that could move markets in current conditions. Crude Oil Inventory data will be closely monitored earlier in the day, as will the latest 10-year bond auction; however, the Fed Meeting Minutes release towards the end of the session is likely to see plenty of volatility around it.
It is a very quiet day on Thursday this week, with very little scheduled to move markets. We do have the usual US Weekly Unemployment Claims data due out early in the New York session, and there are some central bankers set to speak during the latter two sessions of the day; however, expect any geopolitical updates to supersede fundamentals.
Again, another quiet day on Friday to close out the week, with nothing of note scheduled in either the Asian or London sessions. The North American session does see the release of the Canadian Employment data and the Preliminary University of Michigan numbers, but again, geopolitical updates are expected to dominate into the weekend.
Risk Warning: Trading in securities involves significant risk. Prices may fluctuate and securities can become entirely valueless. You may incur losses that exceed your potential profits, and in some cases, losses may exceed the amount you have deposited. Securities, futures, options, and contracts for differences are complex financial instruments and are not suitable for all investors. Engaging in such transactions requires a sound understanding of the associated risks. Please read and ensure you fully understand our Risk Disclosure.
Our leverage is dynamic and may change at any time. Such changes may affect your positions and margin requirements. You are responsible for monitoring your positions and maintaining sufficient margin at all times.
