Markets endured another lively week last week, with global bond yields surging and volatility remaining elevated as geopolitical concerns continued to dominate sentiment.
The week ahead has the potential to be even more volatile. Geopolitical headline risk will remain firmly in focus, while a packed macroeconomic calendar should keep traders on their toes throughout the week.
The US calendar is particularly busy, with several employment updates due ahead of Friday’s key Non-Farm Payrolls report. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index, will also be released and could generate significant moves across currencies, equities and bond markets.
There are several important updates scheduled in other major economies, including the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest interest rate decision, while a raft of central bankers will also hit the wires as the week progresses.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
It is once again a quiet calendar day to start the week on Monday; however, traders are expecting markets to remain lively as they adjust to fresh geopolitical updates from the weekend.
The macroeconomic calendar does kick into action on Tuesday, with the Asian session seeing the latest Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision midway through the day, followed by the press conference an hour later. The London session has a scheduled speech from ECB President Christine LaGarde, while the New York session will see the release of the latest Canadian GDP data, followed by the US CB Consumer Confidence data and the JOLTS Job Openings numbers.
Wednesday is another busy day, with Australian markets remaining in focus during the Asian session again with the release of the latest CPI data early in the day. The London session sees the release of the Preliminary German CPI data, which will see a focus on the Euro; however, it is the New York session that once again looks likely to be busiest. There are more US jobs numbers due, with the ADP Non-Farm numbers scheduled, but the major focus for markets will be on the Core PCE Price Index numbers. The GDP data is also set to be released; however, expect the Fed’s favoured inflation indicator to dominate sentiment.
Thursday sees a lot of central banker updates alongside some further data updates. Chinese markets are on holiday for the last two days of the week, which may affect liquidity in the Asian session, while the London session does see scheduled speeches from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel and ECB President Christine LaGarde. The New York day features the usual release of the Weekly Unemployment Claims numbers, as well as the ISM Manufacturing PMI data, as well as updates from Fed members: Waller, Jeffersen, Bowman, Cook and Logan.
It is Non-Farm Payroll Day on Friday, with the key US Employment numbers scheduled early in the US trading day. However, key CPI numbers out of Japan and the EU will also give traders a focus in their respective sessions.
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